Analysis of Indonesian population mortality based on life table for estimating net premiums for term life insurance
Main Article Content
Abstract
Accurate determination of life insurance premiums requires mortality data that is representative of the characteristics of the insured population. This study aims to analyze the mortality patterns of the Indonesian population based on ASDR data from the SP2020 of the Central Statistics Agency, and apply it in estimating net premiums for term life insurance. The methods used include converting ASDR to probability of death (qx), reconstructing a 5-year abridged life table for productive ages 25–60 years, calculating the actuarial present value (APV) of death benefits, life annuity due, and net premiums based on the actuarial equivalence principle. The discount rate used is 5% with a sum insured of Rp100,000,000 and a policy term of 10 years. The results show that the qx value is relatively constant at 0.00264 in the age range of 25–46 years, then increases significantly to 0.02610 at age 60. The annual net premium for ages 25–46 years is recorded as stable at Rp251,428.57 and increases sharply to Rp467,838.75 at age 49. This study contributes to providing the first publicly accessible proxy life table from the 2020 Population Census aggregate data as an alternative to the Indonesian Mortality Table (TMI).
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
References
Andiraja, N., & Desta, W. (2015). Premi tahunan asuransi jiwa berjangka dengan asumsi seragam untuk status gabungan. Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika, 1(2), 83–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.24014/jsms.v1i2.1962
Artika, S., Purnaba, I. G. P., & Lesmana, D. C. (2018). Penentuan premi asuransi jiwa berjangka menggunakan model Vasicek dan model Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR). Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications, 17(2), 129–139. https://doi.org/10.29244/jmap.17.2.129-139
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2020). Mortalitas: Hasil sensus penduduk 2020.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2024). Mortalitas di Indonesia: Hasil long form sensus penduduk 2020.
Dickson, D. C. M., Hardy, M. R., & Waters, H. R. (2020). Actuarial mathematics for life contingent risks (3rd ed.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108784184
Eliskar, Y., Rustam, R., Fitriyati, N., & Saleh, K. (2023). Estimasi Bayesian pada parameter hukum mortalita Gompertz menggunakan algoritma Metropolis–Hastings. AXIOM: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Matematika, 12(2), 178–188. http://dx.doi.org/10.30821/axiom.v12i2.18061
Jannah, N., Mulyani, T. A., Kusumaningsih, M. D., Fitriyan, N. A., Amitarwati, D. P., & Prabowo, A. (2023). Konstruksi tabel mortalitas dengan hukum Gompertz menggunakan acuan TMI 2019. PESHUM: Jurnal Pendidikan, Sosial dan Humaniora, 2(5), 902–912. https://doi.org/10.56799/peshum.v2i5.1900
Kaukuntla, P. R. (2021). Advancing life insurance pricing accuracy through mortality forecasting: A time-series and survival analysis approach. International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Growth Evaluation, 2(1), 729–734. https://doi.org/10.54660/.IJMRGE.2021.2.1.729-734
Novika, F., & Suryamika, P. E. (2024). Rancang produk asuransi jiwa berjangka dengan metode Kostaki melalui model true fractional premiums. Pythagoras: Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika, 13(2), 146–156. https://doi.org/10.33373/pyth.v13i2.6653
Nurhaliza, A., Susanti, D. S., & Lestia, A. S. (2025). Perbandingan hukum mortalitas Gompertz dan Makeham dalam konstruksi tabel mortalitas Indonesia IV. Jurnal Gaussian, 14(2), 445–456. https://doi.org/10.14710/j.gauss.14.2.445-456
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2016). Peraturan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan Nomor 71/POJK.05/2016 tentang kesehatan keuangan perusahaan asuransi dan perusahaan reasuransi.
Pratiwi, A., Satyahadewi, N., & Perdana, H. (2022). Analisis perhitungan premi asuransi jiwa dengan metode Kostaki melalui model apportionable fractional premiums. Bimaster: Buletin Ilmiah Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya, 11(2), 373–380. https://doi.org/10.26418/bbimst.v11i02.53746
Putra, D. A., Fitriyati, N., & Mahmudi, M. (2019). Fit of the 2011 Indonesian mortality table to Gompertz's and Makeham's law using maximum likelihood estimation. InPrime: Indonesian Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, 1(2), 68–76. https://doi.org/10.15408/inprime.v1i2.13276
Putra, M. R. A., Nurjannah, N., & Kurniawaty, M. (2025). Estimation of Gompertz mortality parameter models on Indonesian population mortality table 2023. CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi, 10(2), 545–555. https://doi.org/10.18860/cauchy.v10i2.33319
Salsabila, A. N., Hartono, J. R. F., Andini, L., Wijaya, A. A., Indrayatna, F., & Setyanto, G. R. (2024). Estimasi cadangan premi prospektif berdasarkan metode gross premium valuation dan asumsi De Moivre. In Prosiding Seminar Nasional Statistika Aktuaria (Vol. 3, pp. 197–209). https://doi.org/10.1234/snsa.v3i.399
Sitanggang, A. M., Manihuruk, O. J., Hasibuan, V. S., Manullang, S., & Farhana, N. A. (2024). Estimasi cadangan premi asuransi jiwa berjangka: Penerapan metode gross premium valuation (GPV). Innovative: Journal of Social Science Research, 4(6), 982–991. https://doi.org/10.31004/innovative.v4i6.16031
Suryanto, A. A., Febriyana, S., Safitri, A., Arigani, Z., & Pratiwi, Y. E. (2025). Analisis perbandingan premi tunggal bersih asuransi jiwa berjangka dengan tabel mortalitas Indonesia (TMI) 2019 berdasarkan gender. STATMAT: Jurnal Statistika dan Matematika, 7(2), 238–248. https://doi.org/10.32493/sm.v7i2.49246
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), & Badan Pusat Statistik. (2021). Mortalitas di Indonesia: Tren, pola, dan proyeksi berdasarkan sensus penduduk 2020.