Resilience of Indonesia’s Trade Balance to Short-Term Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics
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Exchange rate,
Inflation
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Abstract
Indonesia's trade balance is often considered vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations and inflation, but in reality, the period from January 2023 to December 2024 showed a surprising pattern. This study uses a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression on monthly data from Bank Indonesia and Statistics Indonesia to examine the short-term effects of the exchange rate and inflation. The results show that neither is significantly affected. Despite a moderate depreciation of the rupiah and a decline in inflation to its lowest level in history, the trade balance remains in surplus. This finding challenges the common assumption that short-term macroeconomic fluctuations determine trade performance and reveals that structural external factors such as global commodity prices and trading partner demand play a more dominant role. This study emphasizes the need for innovative sector-based trade strategies beyond conventional monetary instruments to maintain external stability.
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